What is the prediction of 6 lakh people dying in Nepal earthquake?

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More than 150 people died and about 140 were injured in the strong earthquake that hit Nepal on the night of Friday, 3 November. The epicenter of this 6.4 magnitude earthquake was about 227 kilometers north of Ayodhya and 331 kilometers west-northwest of Kathmandu, at a depth of 10 kilometers."text-align: justify;">According to the National Seismology Centre, after the earthquake on November 3, till Saturday morning, three tremors of more than 4 intensity and more than 35 smaller tremors have been felt. 

The people affected by this earthquake and the damaged houses have not only drawn the attention of analysts towards Western Nepal but also reminded people of the scene of the earthquake that occurred in 2015, in which about 9000 people died.

Apart from this, this earthquake has also reminded the prediction of Geo Science World Research in which there is a possibility of earthquake like 1505 in Nepal in the coming years. According to this research, if an earthquake like the year 1505 occurs in Nepal, it will come with a magnitude of 8.6 or 8.7 on the Richter scale and 6 lakh people may die and about 1 million people may be injured.  << /p>

Earthquakes have increased in Nepal in the last few months

The earthquake that occurred on Friday may have put the entire country in panic, but it cannot be ignored that the incidents of earthquakes in this country have increased in the last few months. 

< p style="text-align: justify;">Nepal was also the epicenter of the shock that occurred last month i.e. on 22 October. On this day, there were 4 earthquakes in Nepal. The first shock came at 7:39 in the morning. Whose intensity was measured at 6.1 on the Richter scale. 

The intensity of the second tremor was reported to be 4.2 and it occurred at 8:08 in the morning. The third shock was felt half an hour later i.e. at 8:28 in the morning and its intensity was 4.3. The earthquake was felt for the fourth time on this day at 8:59 minutes.

What is the meaning of frequent earthquakes 

According to scientific studies, there is a risk of an earthquake of intensity 8 or more in the areas where a very severe earthquake occurred 500 years ago. Seismic energy has been accumulating beneath the surface of western Nepal for 500 years. The power of seismic energy accumulated over so many years is so much that it can cause an earthquake of magnitude eight or more on the Richter scale and if this happens, then this shock is enough to cause devastation in the entire area. 

Why is there a danger of severe earthquake in western Nepal?

In a BBC report, Lokvijay Adhikari, senior divisional seismologist of Nepal’s National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Centre, while answering this question, says that the number of earthquakes in western Nepal has increased in the last few months. If small and sometimes moderate earthquakes occur daily in an area, then it shows that seismic danger exists in those areas.

He said, “The tremors happening after some interval means that seismic power is accumulating in that area and in future, a big earthquake can also occur in these areas.” "

According to experts, this earthquake happening in Nepal is the result of collision between two continental plates, India and Eurasian plates. If understood in simple language, the Indian plate beneath the earth’s surface is moving northwards towards the Eurasian plate at the rate of two centimeters every year. 

This Indian plate moves and makes a path beneath the Tibetan Plateau and the slippage that occurs every year triggers earthquakes, causing seismic cracks in the Himalayan region.

What do experts say about any future earthquake

Seismologist Roger Bilham who studied the Nepal earthquake in 2017. He had said that at the moment no one can say what will happen next. We cannot give accurate information about any future earthquake. It is possible that this mega earthquake will be seen in the coming weeks, or it may also be possible that something like this may not happen even for 5 centuries.” 

In a BBC report, in response to this question, Geologist Professor Dr. Vishalnath Upreti says that due to the accumulated seismic power in the areas of western Nepal, there is a danger of an earthquake more powerful than the terrible earthquake that occurred in Nepal in 1505. It has happened.

He said, "We do not have any equipment to check how severe the earthquake was in Nepal in 1505. But the cracks and pits that were formed in the ground after the earthquake showed that the ground had shifted up to 20 meters. Analyzing this, it is said that there was an earthquake of 8.5 to 8.7 magnitude at that time.”

The professor further says that the shock of that earthquake was so strong that at that time there was damage from Qutub Minar of Delhi to Lhasa. After the earthquake of 1505, the year 1934 is considered to be the most catastrophic earthquake. The epicenter of the 1934 earthquake was in Chainpur, Nepal and the impact of the earthquake was felt from Kathmandu to Bihar. 

Professor Upreti says, “Now if we talk about Nepal, dangerous seismic power has been accumulating in that area for 500 years. The occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 6, 5 and 4 there is like taking out a few drops of water from an ocean."

How should the country be prepared

The professor further says that in the coming few years, devastating earthquakes may occur in Western Nepal and Eastern Nepal. In view of this, emphasis should be laid on preparations to protect the government and people of the country from this.

He said, “From Kosi to Sikkim-Darjeeling, there has been no major earthquake in the last 1,300 years.” The place in the Himalayas where there is no earthquake that year becomes very dangerous.”

It is said that in the year 1255, an earthquake of more than 8 magnitude occurred in Eastern Nepal. It is believed that the then king Abhay Malla also died in the same earthquake. It is also worth saying that that earthquake had destroyed one-third of Nepal. However, it is not right to predict when a big earthquake will occur. But the longer the interval, the more powerful it will be."

There was a terrible earthquake in 2015 

An earthquake occurred in Nepal on April 25, 2015 at 11:56 am local time. About 9,000 people died due to the 7.8 magnitude earthquake and its aftershocks, while about 22,000 people were injured in this disaster. This year’s earthquake had made 35 lakh people homeless. 

The epicenter of the 2015 earthquake was Lamjung which was 38 kilometers away from Nepal. This earthquake also engulfed many ancient historical temples. Before this, an earthquake of such tremendous intensity had occurred in the year 1934.

After the 2015 earthquake and the devastation caused by it, an assessment report of the Nepal government said that Nepal is the 11th sensitive country in the world in terms of earthquake.