Domestic markets are likely to open on positive note on Tuesday amid positive global cues. Gift Nifty at 23,580 against Nifty futures close of 23,513 signals a gap up opening of about 50-60 points for Nifty. According to analysts, the tug of war between FII and DII will soon end with former is likely to halt their unabated selling soon. Having sold nearly ₹1.40-lakh crore since October, the intensity of selling as already slowed down in the last couple of days said analysts.
Analysts at Bank of Baroda said foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows into India are expected to remain positive in FY25, with projections of $20-25 billion. The report suggests that recent outflows from Indian markets are a short-term phenomenon, driven by global uncertainties, but a rebound is anticipated due to the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals.
“Given India’s robust macro fundamentals, the recent bout of FPI outflows is likely to be only temporary. For FY25, we expect FPI inflows to be positive at USD 20 to 25 billion,” the report said.
According to experts, trading interest will remain low ahead of holiday. Tomorrow market will remain closed on account of Maharashtra state election. The activity market will react to the exit poll on Thursday. If exit polls project winning of current disposition, the recovery will be sharp, they added.
According to Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, said: investors will digest key macro data ranging from flash PMI surveys to bank deposit and loan growth to assess the impact and extent of growth moderation in the domestic economy.
However, Mandar Bhojane, Research Analyst, Choice Broking, said: Traders are advised to avoid long positions unless the index breaks decisively above the 23,800 and 24,000 levels, as further downside risks remain. In this volatile environment, caution and strict risk management are essential.
Signal from futures & options segment still remains negative, said analysts.
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: The Nifty’s trajectory has turned bearish-to-sideways, with every attempt to recovery encountering firm resistance. The close below the 200-DMA and the previous week’s low of 23,800 suggests a cautious stance
“Options data continues to signal bearish undertones, with robust call-writing activity indicating resistance at higher levels. The 24,000-strike call saw the highest open interest (88.91 lakh contracts), followed by the 23,000-strike put (63.52 lakh contracts). The concentration of active positions in the 23,500–23,900 call zone and the 23,100–23,400 put range reinforces the resistance at 24,000 and support near 23,000. Rising call-writing across the 23,500–24,000 range underscores seller dominance, while diminishing put-writing activity reflects cautious sentiment. The put-call ratio (PCR) dipped slightly to 0.71 from 0.73, reflecting a subdued outlook as bearish sentiment grows. The “max pain” level remains at 24,000, suggesting a potential ceiling for recovery efforts,” he added.
Meanwhile, Asian stocks are up in early deal on Tuesday.