CNN data reporter Harry Enten sounded the alarm on Vice President Kamala Harris’ current poll numbers in key battleground states and said right now she was in the “danger zone” based on her chances of winning the electoral college.
“So let‘s take a look at the average margin nationally. Harris is ahead in the average poll by 2.5 points. But look in those seven key battleground states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris is only ahead by 0.3 points,” Enten told CNN’s John Berman. “So the bottom line is, in those seven key battleground states, it’s a significantly tighter race than it is nationally.”
Most national polls, Enten noted, show Harris leading former President Trump.
“Harris’ chances if she wins the popular vote by two to three points, that chance she wins the Electoral College is only 53%. The bottom line is, you have to get all the way north to about three to four points for Harris to have a clear, clear, clear chance, the majority, the clear majority chance of winning the Electoral College. If she only wins by less than two, look at that, only a 23% chance of winning. Right now, Harris, is right now in that danger zone where, basically, about half the time, given the popular vote margin nationally, she would win,” Enten said.
CNN’s Harry Enten sounded the alarm on VP Kamala Harris’ poll numbers in battleground states. (Screenshot/CNN)
Enten said right now, Harris has about a 70% chance of winning the popular vote, and only about a 50% chance of winning the electoral college.
He added that as of today, “there’s about a 20% chance that Kamala Harris wins the popular vote, but actually loses in the Electoral College.”
“So we could be heading towards one of these splits that we saw in 2016 and in 2000, whereby one candidate, Kamala Harris, wins in the popular vote, but loses in the Electoral College. Basically, at this hour, we‘re right in that sort of weird middle zone where we honestly don’t know what’s going to happen based upon the popular vote and that is why those national polls that show Kamala Harris ahead, at this point, really don’t matter that much,” Enten said.
Enten said in August that Trump has been historically underestimated in polling and therefore, despite Harris’ polling gains, still had a good chance of winning.
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Vice President Kamala Harris during the second presidential debate at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“If you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ball game based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years,” Enten said in early August.
A poll released on Sunday found that Harris had narrowed Trump’s lead in Iowa, a state he won by 9 points in 2016 and in 2020.
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Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing the former president 47% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday.