A Democrat has won the presidential race in Minnesota every cycle since 1976 and Vice President Kamala Harris is favorably positioned to extend this streak in 2024, as she currently has a 6-point advantage over former President Donald Trump in a Fox News survey released Friday.
A majority of voters support Harris in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, 52% to 46%, nearly matching the 2020 vote (52.40% Biden, 45.28% Trump). These results sit right at the margin of sampling error.
The survey was completed after the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump and Biden’s July 21 withdrawal announcement and endorsement of Harris.
Harris is bolstered by strong support from urban voters (65%), suburban women (63%), White voters with a college degree (60%), women (58%), voters ages 65 and over (58%), union households (57%), and Independents (53%).
Trump’s coalition consists of White evangelical Christians (69%), White men with no college degree (59%), rural voters (56%), men under age 45 (54%), and voters under age 30 (52%).
Harris has stronger ideological (93% of liberal voters back her) and party support (95% of Democrats) than Trump (81% of conservatives and 93% of Republicans).
Nearly 7 in 10 Minnesotans are extremely motivated to vote this November and they go for Harris by 7 points.
The vice president also does better than other potential Biden replacements in hypothetical matchups against Trump: Gretchen Whitmer 49% vs. Trump 46%, and Josh Shapiro 49% vs. Trump 45%.
In the expanded ballot, Harris drops below 50% support, but Trump suffers more: Harris 47%, Trump 41%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 7%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each. Slightly more two-way Trump supporters defect to third parties (10%) than Harris supporters (7%).
Kennedy is currently the only third-party candidate on the ballot in Minnesota.
Harris’ personal favorable rating is higher than Biden’s by 9 points. She also receives a net positive rating of 4 points (51% favorable vs. 47% unfavorable) versus a negative rating by 14 points for Biden (42-56%).
Still, neither is as high as Amy Klobuchar, the senior U.S. Democratic Senator from Minnesota, who checks in at 57% favorable vs. 38% unfavorable. Other possible replacements for Biden are in positive territory but are much less well known in Minnesota: Whitmer (39% favorable, 33% unfavorable, 28% can’t rate) and Shapiro (33% favorable, 27% unfavorable, 40% can’t rate).
The president’s job performance rating is higher than his personal favorability rating: 46% approve while 53% disapprove.
President Joe Biden addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, July 24, 2024, about his decision to drop his Democratic presidential reelection bid. (Evan Vucci, Pool via AP)
Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race is met with high approval (83%). More Democrats (90%) approve than Independents (83%) or Republicans (76%).
While majorities approve of the decision to withdraw, by more than 2 to 1 voters still think he should finish his term: 68% finish vs. 30% resign.
Trump’s favorable rating is underwater by 13 points (43% favorable, 56% unfavorable) while his vice-presidential running mate JD Vance is underwater by 8 points and lesser known (37% favorable, 45% unfavorable, 18% can’t rate).
TAKE IT FROM ME, REPUBLICANS: KAMALA HARRIS IS A STRONG CANDIDATE. DON’T UNDERESTIMATE HER
“Minnesota is a tough nut for the Republicans, and Harris is a better fit in Minnesota than Biden,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But the contest is clearly competitive there and that’s indicative of a race in which Trump still has more pathways to victory than Harris.”
Trump and Vance are set to campaign in St. Cloud, Minnesota, on Saturday.
The top issue for Minnesota voters when it comes to their vote this fall is the economy at 33%, with more than twice as many saying they are falling behind financially (43%) as say they are getting ahead (17%). Four in 10 say they are holding steady (39%).
Immigration (16%) and abortion (15%) follow the economy as the second and third most important issues. All other issues tested are in the single digits. The top issue for Democrats is abortion (24%) while for Republicans (44%) and Independents (39%) it is the economy.
Overall, those who point to the economy as the most important issue back Trump by 33 points, while immigration voters support him by an even greater 83 points. Those who say abortion is their top issue favor Harris by 63 points.
“The prospect of Republicans bringing Minnesota into play this fall appears less likely with Harris at the top of the ticket,” says Anderson. “She is viewed favorably by a narrow majority, while larger majorities are unfavorable toward both Trump and Biden. The choice is no longer between a lesser of two evils for some voters.”
Although Harris’ nomination is not official, she’s the top choice among Minnesota registered voters to replace Biden, with 48% supporting her as the nominee, including 76% of Democrats and 40% of Independents. The second choice of both Democrats (8%) and Independents (16%) is Klobuchar.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally on June 28, 2024, in Las Vegas. (Bizuayehu Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
In the Minnesota Senate race, incumbent Klobuchar outperforms Harris in her contest: 57% support her vs. 40% for potential Republican challenger Royce White.
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Five times as many Trump supporters defect to Klobuchar (15%), as Harris backers switch sides to White (3%).
The Minnesota Senate primary will be held August 13 to see who will run against incumbent Democratic senator.
Conducted July 22-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,071 Minnesota registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (150) and cellphones (606) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (315). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.