Kent Redfield, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield
Courtesy of Kent Redfield
We won’t know for months if President Joe Biden’s historic decision to end his reelection bid so a potentially stronger Democratic candidate can face Republican Donald Trump in November’s election was a smart one — but it was the only move to make as his campaign foundered, an Illinois political expert said.
“All the dynamics pointed to a Biden loss and possibly a real meltdown, which could have hurt down-ballot Democratic candidates,” said Kent Redfield, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield. “They needed a reset and Biden was unlikely to provide it.”
Within hours of Biden’s announcement Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris became the leading contender to receive the nomination at next month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. And assuming that comes to fruition, Harris likely will be a tougher political target for Republicans than Biden, said Melissa Mouritsen, a political science professor at College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn.
But by no means would a Harris candidacy be invincible.
“She campaigns better than Biden, but because the Biden administration did not give her good projects to work on that would give her tangible results to use, its hard to know what she would campaign on,” Mouritsen said.
Additionally, because vice presidents often run for president on the coattails of their predecessors, rising inflation during the current administration could hurt Harris’ chances, Mouritsen said.
“Inflation aside, Biden has some real accomplishments and has done many good things,” she said. “But inflation is not an aside, and despite a strong jobs market … and a strong stock market, all people can see are prices.”
Despite Biden’s status as the leader of the Democratic Party, his campaign lost significant support after a widely panned debate performance last month. Democratic lawmakers who formerly had been staunch Biden backers began calling for the 80-year-old president to withdraw from the race and cede the nomination to a younger and more energetic candidate — and those calls grew louder as time passed.
But another disastrous public appearance by Biden would have destroyed his chances to stay in office as well as the Democrats’ chances of holding control of the U.S. Senate or winning a majority in the U.S. House, Redfield said.
“The Democrats would lose all their enthusiasm and Republicans would be ever more energized,” Redfield said. “That would translate to Democratic voters only interested in the race for president staying home and not being able to vote in down-ballot races, while the Republican would have gotten a surge of voters who would also vote in the down-ballot races.”
The impact of Biden’s withdrawal from the race on his presidential legacy depends on whether the maneuver is successful for the Democratic Party, Redfield said.
“If Trump wins and the Republicans win both the House and the Senate, he will be blamed (for) running for a second term in the first place and then for not getting out sooner,” Redfield said. “If Trump wins, but the Dems hold on to either chamber, the criticisms from Democrats will not be as harsh.”
Mouritsen, however, believes Biden’s delay in stepping aside already has hurt his legacy.
“He should have made this decision a year ago to give Democrats more of a chance,” she said. “But coulda, woulda, shoulda, as my grandpa would say.”
Melissa Mouritsen, professor of political science at College of DuPage.
Courtesy of College of DuPage
Mouritsen doesn’t think Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race will affect down-ballot contests in Illinois, where Democrats control the General Assembly and every statewide office.
That might change if Democrats nominate Gov. J.B. Pritzker for vice president, she said.