Energy
International and domestic crude oil futures settled weaker on Monday with NYMEX gasoline falling to a 4-week low.
Weak economic news from China weighed on crude prices Monday.
The Dollar too recovered on Monday and kept upside capped.
Looking ahead from an intraday perspective, international crude oil prices have started marginally weaker this early Tuesday morning in Asian weighed by weak economic data from China.
In June, China’s crude oil imports fell on both a monthly and annual basis to 46.45 million tons.
Intraday, the NYMEX WTI September futures could trade in band of $80.35 to $81.20, while MCX July crude futures could trade within 6,800 to 6,890.
On the options side, highest Call OI remains at the 7000 strike, while on the downside highest Put OI remains at 6800 strike.
International and domestic gas futures tumbled on Monday undercut by forecasts for cooler US temperatures that would reduce demand from electricity providers to run air conditioning.
Additionally, flows to the LNG terminal in Texas also remained low, reflecting weak demand and weighed on prices.
Looking ahead from an intraday perspective, international natural gas futures have started flat this early Tuesday morning in Asian trading.
Intraday, the NYMEX gas September futures could trade in band of $2.150 to $2.250, while MCX July crude futures could trade in the band of 183 to 190.
On the options side, highest Call OI remains at 240 strike, while on the downside highest Put OI has shifted to 190 strike from 170 strike.
Bullion
International and domestic gold prices gained on Monday aided by hopes for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve
International spot and domestic silver prices eased on Monday, tracking gains in the dollar and bond yields.
However, traders awaited for more comments from Fed officials to gauge the timing of those cuts.
Meanwhile, Powell’s interview with Rubenstein was largely in line where the Fed Chief largely repeated themes from a week ago.
Powell declined to give any guidance on the timing of interest-rate moves and said that policymakers will make calls meeting by meeting.
But he added that the CPI report does add somewhat to confidence that inflation is heading down to the central bank’s 2% target.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 94% chance of a US rate cut in September.
However, demand concerns from the physical side limited upside in gold and silver after weaker-than-expected GDP data from major gold consumer China might be limiting buying interest in the gold market.
From an intraday perspective, international gold prices have started marginally higher this early Tuesday morning in Asian trading as investors loo to retail sales data tonight.
Internationally, the range for COMEX August gold is $2,405 to $2,445, while that for MCX gold August is 73,100 to 73,800.
On the options side, highest Call OI remains at 75000 strike, while on the downside highest Put OI remains at 71000 strike.
International LBMA spot silver prices have also started marginally in the green this early Tuesday morning in Asian trade.
The Dollar has started stronger and could cap gains, but the US Treasury Yield has started with small cuts and could cap downside.
Internationally, the range for COMEX September silver is $30.625 to $31.190, while that for MCX September silver is 92,100 to 93,250
On the options side, highest Call OI remains at 100000 strike, while on the downside highest Put OI remains at 85000 strike.
Base Metals
International and domestic copper dropped on Monday as the dollar firmed and weak economic data from China.
Data showed China’s Q2 GDP rose by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.0% year-on-year, weaker than expectations of 0.9% and 5.2% respectively.
Additionally, China’s June retail sales rose by 2.0% year-on-year, weaker than expectations of 3.4% year-on-year and the smallest pace of increase in 14 months.
In addition, China’s June new home prices fell by 0.67% month-on-month, the thirteenth consecutive month home prices have declined.
Meanwhile, Stocks of copper in LME-approved warehouses have reached their highest since October 2021 at 210,325 tons, more than double levels in mid-May and weighed on prices.
Other metals on LME ended weaker on Monday with aluminium prices falling almost 1% after data showed China’s production of primary aluminium in June rose to its highest in nearly a decade.
From an intraday perspective, international copper has started weaker this early Tuesday morning in Asian trading on poor demand prospects from China and a stronger Dollar.
However, the downside could be capped as traders could be hopeful that weak data would lead to further stimulus from China.
Key trigger will be China’s plenum which started this week.
Internationally, LME copper range is $9,700 to $9,875, while the range for MCX copper July is 850 to 865.
On the options side, highest Call OI has shifted to 880 strike from 900 strike, while on the downside highest Put OI remains at 850 strike.
Most other metals on LME have started weaker this early Tuesday morning in Asian trade.
Internationally, the range for LME zinc is $2,925 to $2,975, while that for MCX zinc July is 272 to 276.
On the options side, highest Call OI remains at 275 strike, while on the downside highest Put OI remains at 260 strike.