Gold and silver prices moderated last week. In dollar terms, gold was down 1 per cent and silver lost 2.6 per cent, as they closed at $2,029 and $22.6 per ounce, respectively.
Similarly, on the MCX, gold futures depreciated 0.7 per cent and ended the week at ₹62,332 (per 10 gram), whereas silver futures slipped 1.4 per cent to close at ₹71,460 (per kg).
MCX-Gold (₹62,332)
Gold futures (April contract) saw a mid-week sell-off leading to it closing below both 20- and 50-day moving averages. Also, the price has been falling since early January.
As it stands, the inclination is bearish. But the contract has a support at ₹61,500. A breach of this can drag the contract to ₹60,000, a strong base.
But if gold futures recovers from here, ₹63,000 will be a hurdle for the bulls. Subsequent resistance is at ₹64,000. Note that the contract might consolidate between ₹61,500 and ₹63,000 this week.
Trading strategy: Stay away even as the bias is bearish. Short gold April futures if it falls below ₹61,500. Target and stop-loss can be at ₹60,000 and ₹62,250.
MCX-Silver (₹71,460)
Silver futures declined last week. However, the support band of ₹71,000-71,400 has arrested the fall beyond these levels. Yet, the bearishness in gold could weigh on silver as well.
If silver futures breaches the support at ₹71,000, it will most likely fall to ₹68,000. There could be a bounce off this base. Support below ₹68,000 is at ₹66,500.
If the contract rallies from here, it will face a barrier at ₹73,500. A breach of this can lift the contract to ₹75,600, a resistance.
Trading strategy: For traders with high-risk appetite, we suggested longs two weeks ago at ₹71,800 with stop-loss at ₹70,400. Hold this trade. Book profits if the price hits ₹74,900.
But if support at ₹71,000 is invalidated, exit longs and go short with a stop-loss at ₹72,500. Liquidate them at ₹68,000.