Gold and silver produced a diverse performance last week. While the former lost 0.5 per cent to end the week at $2,013.1 per ounce, the latter gained 3.5 per cent to close at $23.4 an ounce.
Similarly, on the MCX, gold futures slipped 0.7 per cent to close the week at ₹61,878 (per 10 gram), whereas silver futures rallied 1.9 per cent to end at ₹72,112 (per kg).
MCX-Gold (₹61,878)
Gold futures (April contract) dropped below the support at ₹61,800 and marked a low of ₹61,190 on Wednesday. However, it then recovered and managed to end the week above the support.
If the recovery continues this week and gold futures moves up, it will face resistance at ₹62,500 and ₹63,000. Only a clear breach of ₹63,000 can turn the outlook positive.
On the other hand, if the downswing resumes, gold futures can bank on the support at ₹61,800 and ₹61,100. A breach of ₹61,100 can intensify the sell-off.
Trading strategy: Traders can stay away for now. Initiate short position if there is a fall off the resistance at ₹62,500. Target and stop-loss can be at ₹60,000 and ₹63,200 respectively.
If the above stop-loss is hit, it would mean the barrier at ₹63,000 is breached, a bullish sign. In this case, one can go long with stop-loss at ₹62,500. Exit longs at ₹64,000.
MCX-Silver (₹72,112)
Silver futures (March series) made a sharp recovery after falling in the first half of last week. However, for this to become a proper uptrend, the contract should break out of ₹73,000.
If this move occurs, silver futures can rally to the resistance band of ₹75,000-76,000. Subsequent resistance is at ₹78,500.
But if the contract declines and slips below ₹70,000, we are likely to see a swift downswing towards ₹68,000 or even to ₹66,500.
Trading strategy: Go long if silver futures breaks out of ₹73,000. Target and stop-loss can be at ₹75,000 and ₹72,000 respectively.