Sumit Pokharna, VP and Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities, expects a tough quarter ahead for most oil and gas companies in Q1FY25, with some notable exceptions. Here are the key insights:
Reliance Industries (RIL): Anticipates an 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decline in EBITDA due to weakness in the O2C segment despite modest growth in RJio and retail.
ONGC: Expect a 6% QoQ decline in EBITDA, attributed to lower net oil realization and reduced oil production.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs): Forecasts a substantial EBITDA decline of 35-43 per cent QoQ, driven by weaker Gross Refining Margins (GRM) and lower auto-fuel marketing margins.
GAIL and PLNG: Positioned for growth with expectations of higher EBITDA driven by increased gas consumption. GAIL is expected to see a 6% QoQ rise in EBITDA, while PLNG anticipates a 20 per cent QoQ increase in adjusted EBITDA.
GSPL: Faces a sharp 19 per cent QoQ decline in EBITDA due to a significant tariff cut despite higher transmission volumes.
The outlook reflects varying challenges and opportunities within the sector. Despite the broader sectoral weaknesses in Q1FY25, GAIL and PLNG stand out with their potential for growth.