Chicago Cubs’ David Bote pitches during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday, July 13, 2024, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
AP
ST. LOUIS — The sudden hot streak by the Cubs: Is it false hope or proof this team has what it takes to contend?
Hard to say. Keep in mind, modern Major League Baseball is no longer a marathon. The expanded playoffs are built for a sprint to the finish.
The hottest and healthiest teams are playing deep into October these days. Arizona was below .500 on Aug. 14 last year and ended up in the World Series.
Saturday’s doubleheader in St. Louis sent discouraging signals. The Cubs were blown out 11-3 in Game 1, as the Cardinals scored 9 runs in the first inning. Then the Cubs blew a late lead in Game 2 and were swept 5-4.
In the nightcap, the Cubs (46-51) scored 4 runs early, then missed several great opportunities to pad the lead. A Cards comeback seemed inevitable, and in the eighth Nolan Arenado’s 2-run single off Porter Hodge made the difference.
The trade market will probably be tepid. The Cubs don’t have many pieces to sell, not that they’d plan on being sellers anyway. And Jed Hoyer is squeamish about watching one of his prized prospects turn into a star (see Dylan Cease, Isaac Paredes), which he probably should be.
Let’s check on the state of the Cubs a day before the all-star break and decide which category is most important to making them true contenders:
Starting pitching
This is already the strength of the team and could challenge for the best in MLB in the second half. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon have been excellent, but it takes more than three.
Within about 16 hours, the Cubs went from a 32-inning scoreless streak by their pitching staff to giving up 9 runs in the first. Wesneski, solid in his previous start, watched the bad luck pile up — thanks in part to his two errors.
Javier Assad made his return from the injured list in Saturday’s Game 2 but was pulled in the third inning after 44 pitches, which stressed the bullpen. Ben Brown (neck) and Jordan Wicks (oblique) could be back from injuries soon, so who stays in the rotation?
Then there’s Kyle Hendricks, who has mostly struggled this season, but spun seven scoreless innings in a throwback victory Friday. How good can he be the rest of the way?
“We’ve been (winning) because we’ve been taking one game at a time, one pitch at a time,” Hendricks said. “So that’s just where we’ve got to stay.”
Chicago Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki hits an RBI single during the second inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday, July 13, 2024, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
AP
Bullpen
Even with all the injuries, Cubs relievers have been good at times, and they’ve found a couple of surprise stars in Tyson Miller, a trade acquisition from Seattle; and Hodge, a midlevel prospect and former 13th-round draft pick.
Can they keep those two, plus Mark Leiter Jr., rolling? Maybe get Julian Merryweather (rib) and Adbert Alzolay (flexor strain) back from the injured list, and also stay healthy?
Maybe, but if the starting pitchers stay hot, the bullpen gets to travel a much smoother path.
Bottom of the order
Here are the Cubs’ bottom five hitters in Saturday’s Game 2 lineup, along with their batting averages: Christopher Morel .199, Dansby Swanson .215, Miles Mastrobuoni .203, Miguel Amaya .198, and Pete Crow-Armstrong .192.
They are beginning to heat up. Amaya took three days off recently to work on his hitting approach. He hit a 2-run home run in the second inning of Game 2 after collecting a pair of hits in two of his previous three starts.
Swanson went 2-for-4 in three consecutive games. Mastrobuoni went 6-for-11 over a four-game stretch beginning with the opener in Baltimore. Things are trending positive, but how long will it last?
“It’s just difficult to count on three players in the lineup for all your wins,” Counsell said. “In the last week we’re getting run production out of the bottom of the lineup. And that makes a big difference, gets you from 3 to 5 (runs).”
Defense
The steamy Saturday doubleheader demonstrated how important this category can be. The Cubs defense was sloppy in the Game 1 loss and it wasn’t just Wesneski’s first-inning miscues.
In Game 2 the Cubs made two putouts at the plate and doubled up a runner a second base. We’ll repeat an old Hoyer line — this team was built on pitching and defense. So they’d better bring at least bronze or silver gloves to have a shot.
Conclusion
It would be a cop out to say all four categories are equally important, although they kind of are.
So the pick here is bottom of the order. You can’t win if you don’t score, right? The Cubs need slug from Morel, consistency from Swanson and PCA to start stealing bases again.
MLB is designed for September surprises. The Cubs have as good a shot as anyone else eyeing that third wild card.
Twitter: @McGrawDHSports