Shabana Mahmood, the new justice secretary, painted a bleak picture in her speech today, announcing that prisons are nearly full and inmates will have to be let out early.
Britain is faced, she said, with “the imminent collapse of the criminal justice system”. The consequences of not acting would mean nothing less than “van loads of dangerous people circling the country with nowhere to go”.
She added: “We could see looters running amok, smashing in windows, robbing shops and setting neighbourhoods alight. In short, if we fail to act now, we face the collapse of the criminal justice system and a total breakdown of law and order.”
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Admitting it sounded like “some dystopian film”, the minister said: “This is the legacy of the last Conservative government. This is the legacy of the guilty men.”
Forced to act to “avert disaster”, she said only letting people out having served 40% of their sentences could free up space, making it the least worst option.
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A line-up of prison governors, police chiefs, charities and even the former Conservative justice secretary Alex Chalk have backed the plan, saying there is nothing else for it.
We have now learned, only after the election, that the Conservative government freed 10,000 offenders early, with an unknown number now to be added to that total.
This is no easy decision for any government, and the obvious decision for this new government – only a week into office – is to coat it in blame for their predecessors.
We see a similar approach from Wes Streeting, the health secretary, describing the NHS as “broken”, to lay the ground for incremental improvements.
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Streeting: ‘It’s clear to me the NHS is broken’
Sir Keir Starmer has lent a hand from Washington, saying that even given his years in the justice system, things are worse than he ever imagined.
But while Ms Mahmood, who is shrewd political operator, cannot be blamed for the current crisis, she will soon have to take responsibility for what comes next.
Letting certain offenders out early will buy her approximately 18 months.
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Prisoners to be released early to alleviate overcrowding
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The Ministry of Justice is building six prisons to create an extra 20,000 new places, but fewer than half will be open by 2025, with others tied up in planning appeals.
Years of underfunding and staffing issues have led to concerning conditions in the system, yet the new government has announced no new investment.
One of the options that will need to be considered is the end of short sentences – backed by former Conservative prisons ministers David Gauke and Rory Stewart, but not taken forward after a backlash.
The appointment of James Timpson, the former CEO of the Timpson Group, which employs ex-offenders, as minister for prisons, parole and probation, suggests there may be some radical thinking in that area.
The new justice secretary can blame the Conservatives failings for now, but it will only be a matter of months before more difficult decisions will have to be made.